Should We Be Concerned?

For the past week the market had not rallied immediately prior to Labor Day, the US banking holiday, so it did so immediately after the holiday when the market opened for trading on Tuesday. This is a typical market reaction prior to and after US banking holidays.  After the market rally it really went nowhere (south to flat).

We are however still in a bearish technical environment. Is this something that should concern us? Should I be giving credence to the bearish market prognosticators?

When to Tune Out the News

As you probably know by now I myself am not a fan of reading or listening to anything stock market related. While I am aware of and occasionally receive different newsletters to try to get a handle on what information is being circulated the ultimate decision maker in what I do has to do with price and what is happening in the stock market.

I remember in 2012 receiving an email from a leading stock market newsletter that indicated that we would see the “Crash of 2013”. Of course the information was riddled with “end of world” scenarios.

The usual list of warnings including that the housing market prices in the US would drop precipitously, the stock market would drop by over 50%, that this would have a global impact like one that has never been seen before, and on and on.

Actually he was not alone in this dooms day global scenario. There were actually several other individuals who have written books, have been on national television and have an enormous following.

However getting back to the previous newsletter I have to say that I am never enticed to read that sort of doom and gloom information. However what compelled me to even consider reading this type of information is because the newsletter indicated that this person had actually forecasted every single stock market and real estate bubble going back 20-30 years.

Wouldn’t that be enough to compel you to read further? I kept wondering how on earth this could be possible. Who could be that accurate? So I made sure to get myself on the email list for further information.

By the end of 2013 when the end of the world had not occurred I received a new warning – the date for the market crash was now 2014. By the end of 2014 – by now you have guessed correct no market crash and a new revised date. About a month ago I received the most recent update – the market crash would come in 2016.

By now I had had enough and asked to be removed from the subscriber list. Now I understood the game well enough to know how individuals can claim to have predicted every market turning event – they make these predictions until they occur and then of course take all of the credit for being right.

While in the end they may be correct I have to say that I find that type of claim to be a tad misleading. It helped me to realize that there is no such thing as someone who can predict these market tops and bottoms with accuracy 100% of the time so now you know you can save your money!